Economist
Oliver’s insights – the slump in home prices continues
7 December
Key points – Australian national average home prices fell another 1% in November and are now down by 6.9% from their high, having seen their steepest fall in the last forty years. – Rising mortgage rates are the main driver of the slump and...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – medium term inflation pressures & implications for investors
30 November
Key points – The surge in inflation should start to reverse next year. – However, five structural trends suggest higher medium term inflation pressures than pre-pandemic. These are: a move away from economic rationalist policies; the reversal...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Shares may have bottomed
16 November
Key points Given recession and geopolitical risks, the ride for shares may still remain choppy and new lows can’t be ruled out. But the increasing evidence of a peak in US inflation (which will lead Australian inflation), central banks...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – seven reasons why Australia should be able to avoid a recession
9 November
Key points The combination of cost-of-living pressures, sharp interest rate hikes and a global downturn point to a sharp slowing in the Australian economy next year, with consumer confidence at recessionary levels. However, there are several...[Read More]
The October 2022-23 Australian Budget
26 October
Key points Yet another revenue windfall and the offsetting of new spending with savings has resulted in sharply lower budget deficits this year and next, with the deficit this year expected to be $36.9bn (down from $78bn in March). This avoids...[Read More]
Market Update 30 September 2022
5 October
Investment markets & key developments Share markets fell sharply again over the last week in response to continuing hawkish central bank comments and rising recession fears not helped by a mini fiscal crisis in the UK. This capped of sharp...[Read More]
The RBA hikes rates by 0.25%. Here are five reasons why the RBA was right to slowdown and the top is near
5 October
Key points The RBA sensibly dropped back to a 0.25% hike this month taking the cash rate to 2.6%. Its still signalling more hikes ahead though. Slowing the pace of rate hikes makes sense: the RBA needs to allow time to assess the impact...[Read More]
Shares sliding again – what’s driving it and is there any light at the end of the tunnel?
29 September
Key points Share markets remain under pressure from high inflation, rising rates & bond yields and the rising risk of recession and the threat that poses to company profits. With the rising risk of global recession, global and...[Read More]
Econosights: Three reasons why Australia is more vulnerable to higher rates
21 September
Key points Australian consumers are more vulnerable to interest rate rises compared to our global peers because of : 1) higher levels of household debt; 2) a higher share of variable rate mortgages and even those on fixed-loans only fix for...[Read More]
Australia’s productivity challenge – why it matters and what to do about it
14 September
Key points The last twenty years have seen a sharp slowdown in productivity growth in Australia from over 2% pa to around 1.2% pa. This has adversely affected growth in living standards and real wages. It will adversely affect asset class...[Read More]
Seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on in assessing the investment outlook
8 September
Key points While we are optimistic on a 12-month horizon, shares are at high risk of further falls and a re-test of their June lows in the short term given hawkish central banks, heightened recession risks and geopolitical risks. Seven...[Read More]
Econosights: Have we reached peak inflation?
31 August
Key points A peak in inflation (in annual terms) has likely been reached in the US while Australia is lagging behind and is likely to see a peak in December 2022. Extremely high European energy prices means Euro inflation will increase...[Read More]